Interesting take. What is "the window" that you see closing here?
From my vantage, I can think of three windows that could close:
- Frontier model performance plateaus and/or reaches a "good enough" point where further gains are not particularly valuable. In this world models are fully commodified, and it seems like open wins almost by default.
- Frontier models becomes so expensive to train that open models can no longer afford to keep up. Alternatively, frontier models eat up so much of available compute power (RAM, electricity, whatever) that open models are starved for resources.
- Regulatory capture. Legal barriers make it difficult or illegal for open models to be developed and/or adopted.
I guess a forth window close is that frontier model companies successfully create lock-in around their tools or platforms, but I don't see this happening. One of the major side effects of Claude Code is that it is now easier than ever to duplicate platforms and automate switching costs.
I'm super interested in seeing the claude code equivalent open source setup. Also would love to learn more about how to rent less and own more across my entire tech stack and life.
love it! big picture mindset 🙌
Interesting take. What is "the window" that you see closing here?
From my vantage, I can think of three windows that could close:
- Frontier model performance plateaus and/or reaches a "good enough" point where further gains are not particularly valuable. In this world models are fully commodified, and it seems like open wins almost by default.
- Frontier models becomes so expensive to train that open models can no longer afford to keep up. Alternatively, frontier models eat up so much of available compute power (RAM, electricity, whatever) that open models are starved for resources.
- Regulatory capture. Legal barriers make it difficult or illegal for open models to be developed and/or adopted.
I guess a forth window close is that frontier model companies successfully create lock-in around their tools or platforms, but I don't see this happening. One of the major side effects of Claude Code is that it is now easier than ever to duplicate platforms and automate switching costs.
Great read! Curious how you use Mistral AI models!
I'm super interested in seeing the claude code equivalent open source setup. Also would love to learn more about how to rent less and own more across my entire tech stack and life.
next week!
Loved the read. Very interesting and insightful!
thanks! it feels good to be writing again.